Immigration: Challenges, Trends, and Impact on the U.S. Labor Force

AARP International Idea Exchange Series
September 24, 2008 

Introduction
Immigration raises complex issues that are closely connected to a growing older population in the U.S. Immigration trends and policies could affect Social Security, Medicare, health care, the labor force, and family caregiving - particularly in long-term care settings.  AARP aims to better understand immigration on several different dimensions and how it fits in with our association agenda, as well as our cross-cutting diversity efforts. To this end, AARP International on September 24, 2008 hosted three experts in the fields of immigration and aging to address the topic “Immigration: Challenges, Trends and the Impact on the U.S. Labor Force” in the framework of its quarterly Idea Exchange series.

About the Speakers:

Dr. Robert Suro of the School of Journalism at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School for Communication is an expert in the field of immigration. He is working with AARP’s Public Policy Institute to help AARP explore how immigration trends and policies could affect Social Security, Medicare, health care, the labor force, and family caregiving.

Alejandro Garcia of the School of Social Work at Syracuse University is an expert on gerontology, social policy, and human diversity. He is a past Chair and current regional representative of the AARP National Policy Council. John Rother is the Group Executive Officer of Policy and Strategy for AARP. He is responsible for the federal and state public policies of the Association, for international initiatives, and for formulating AARP's overall strategic direction. He is an authority on Medicare, managed care, long-term care, Social Security, pensions and the challenges facing the boomer generation.

Immigration Trends and the U.S. Workforce
Dr. Roberto Suro

Professor Suro opened the roundtable with an overview of demographic trends in the United States as they relate to immigration and long-term patterns in the U.S. workforce.

The United States today is four decades into a major era of immigration. Between 1970 and 2007, the number of foreign born persons in the U.S. surged from 9.6 million to over 38 million; while they accounted for just 4.7% of the U.S. population in 1970, their share is 12.6% today.

Population growth numbers are even more revealing: between 2000 and 2006, the U.S. population grew by 15 million - 6 million of which were foreign born. In the subgroup of Caucasians, foreign born individuals even accounted for more than half of all population growth.  

While immigration has traditionally been a narrative of “people coming here” – one that portrays the immigrant as the instigator of his course of action and a catalyst of change, recent immigrant flows have to a significant extent been determined by “pull” factors here in the U.S. One of them is the ever-growing demand for workers; declining birth rates among the native-born population, the success of our education system, and the restructuring of the economy from manufacturing to services have brought about difficulties in filling low-skill jobs. The ensuing opportunities in the labor market have created strong incentives for immigration.

As a result of decades of immigrant inflows, foreign born individuals now account for most of the growth of the U.S. labor force. Between 2000 and 2006, their share of total labor growth was 54%, up from 38% in the decade of the 1990’s. In absolute terms, the share of immigrant workers in the U.S. labor force has risen from 9% in 1990 to 16% in 2006.

Immigration is increasingly becoming a function of who we import to fill holes in our labor market. Different demands in different segments of our labor force have led to an inflow of workers that is highly segmented by education and nationality, with concentrations on both ends of the education spectrum: highly educated specialists imported to fill critical positions in the service and other advanced industries, and a poorly educated servant class filling low-skill jobs in areas such as manufacturing and long term care. The foreign born workforce as a whole is younger than its aging native born counterpart – 47% of it is in the 25 – 39 age bracket, compared to just 31% of the native born workforce.

The immigration waves of the past two decades have been highly responsive to the needs of the U.S. economy. During the prosperous 1990’s, the inflow of immigrant workers rose significantly; after a surge in the late 1990’s, it peaked in 2000 and leveled off during the recession in the early 2000’s. The housing boom between 2002 and 2005 led to another immigration surge, followed by a sharp drop after the housing bust and an increase in enforcement raids. Immigrants – and illegal ones in particular – are a highly flexible, disposable labor force that comes and goes in response to the state of the U.S. economy and the needs of its labor market. Unemployment in the U.S. and immigrant flows have a strong inverse correlation.

In conclusion, Professor Suro noted that we are likely nearing the end of a period of very substantial inflows of foreign workers, driven by the prosperity of the 1990’s and the construction boom.  We are unlikely to see flows in the same numbers and shape that we have in the past decades. This will have implications for public policy, and social security in particular.

Immigration and Long-Term Care
Dr. Alejandro Garcia

The long term care industry has seen unprecedented growth in recent years: individuals aged 85 years and older are now the fastest growing age group of the U.S. population. At the same time, the high mobility of Americans and the entry of women into the workforce have made it difficult for family members to provide care to their elders. While the demand for long-term care workers has increased, diminishing fertility rates and a smaller supply of native-born Americans in low-wage jobs have created a labor shortage in this field. Immigration policies that tend to favor highly trained medical staff over workers in the lower-wage allied health fields have exacerbated the situation. As a consequence, the long-term care industry now relies heavily on services provided by undocumented workers. It is estimated that one in six undocumented workers are employed in a long-term care setting. 

Garcia expressed concern about the treatment and welfare of undocumented workers, which are often invisible and unacknowledged. In his view, we must challenge the notion that they are parasites living off of the wealth of America without contributing; these individuals provide the cheap labor and products that American society demands, including much-needed relief to the shortage of long-term care workers. Many of them pay taxes for services they are not eligible to receive. In spite of their contributions, we have been reluctant to integrate them into society. According to Garcia, this fact has been reflected in the rise in ethnicity-motivated violence against Hispanics and the proliferation of nativist-extrimist groups in recent years.

There are 12 million undocumented workers in the U.S. – 85% of whom are employed. Some see immigration as a wage issue and advocate stricter laws. Others advocate stepwise legalization. As a society, Garcia concluded, we need to ensure adequate long-term care options for our parents; in doing so, we must act responsibly with a view to the welfare of the workers who provide critically needed labor where we need it most.   

Immigration, Social Contract, and Approaches to Social Policy
John Rother

While the debate on immigration is on one level about jobs, it has equally profound implications for health care, education, and notions of a social contract, John Rother noted. If our society is to tackle the challenges posed by an aging population, we all have a shared stake in ensuring adequate education for the second and third generations of immigrants. Failure to take advantage of the younger, immigrant workforce would exacerbate the critical staffing gaps in the health care and long-term care fields. Health care and education are therefore closely linked, Rother noted, adding that budget constraints at the state level frequently put the two of them in competition for funding.

AARP has for the most part been a proponent of a universal approach to social issues and public policy, which holds that everybody, regardless of origin, should have the same access to education, opportunities, and laws protecting them from discrimination. According to Rother, this approach is both more effective and more politically tenable than policy approaches that target specific segments of the population with individual policy programs.

Rother concluded by noting that attitudes towards immigration will likely change in the long term. People change their views as they age. Views towards immigration are also influenced by the economy, our set of values, and by our openness towards differences within our community. The ultimate question in the debate around immigration remains one that has been debated ever since the foundation of our country: “who’s a part of our community, and who’s American?”

About AARP's Idea Exchange Program
The AARP Idea Exchange Series is a quarterly roundtable policy discussion series on global issues housed by AARP’s Office of International Affairs. The program brings opinion leaders to AARP headquarters for informal discussions with experts and policy leaders, representing both the AARP staff as well as the outside community (including embassies, research institutes, think tanks, business community, government agencies, and congressional offices) on issues related to the aging population and global outlooks.

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